Every brand knows Q4 is the most important stretch of the year. Between Halloween, Black Friday, Cyber Monday, and Christmas, the last three months of the year drive the biggest surge of consumer activity and the fiercest competition for attention.

According to the Mastercard Economics Institute, U.S. holiday retail sales are expected to rise 3.6% year over year between November 1 and December 24, 2025. E-commerce sales are projected to grow 7.9%, outpacing in-store growth at just 2.3%.

Statista estimates mobile commerce revenue will hit $2.5 trillion in 2025, accounting for 63% of total retail e-commerce.

That means more people are shopping, more of them are shopping on mobile, and more brands are fighting for the same eyeballs. In this environment, creative is not just an asset, it’s your edge.

The Consumer Mindset in 2025: Practical, Early, and Digital

McKinsey’s latest U.S. consumer sentiment report shows shoppers will be cautious but intentional this year. Net sentiment is down 35% from its 2024 peak, resulting in more practical gifting and less splurging.

But that doesn’t mean consumers aren’t engaged. It means they’re shopping differently:

• Earlier: 37% of millennials start before October, compared to 28% overall.

• Selective on Black Friday: Only 11% of shoppers plan to begin on Black Friday weekend.

• Digital-heavy: One-